After RBI, Election Commission begins to rot and decay

What is the point in postponing a poll?

This is the same as the demonetisation of Narendra Modi. These are moves that fool the citizens with their supposed boldness. These are of least consequence in making the evolutionary changes that will address the issues that are faced by a system.

Decisions such as postponing elections and demonetising an economy bear the hallmark of administrators who have no idea of the requirements and objectives of their jobs. These are decisions made by people who have come into office entirely without any merit or experience for the job.

That this is not self-evident to the journalistic class(actually hangers-on) and to the people is a clear sign that democracy in India has taken a turn for the worst. The people have no idea on what democracy means.

They do not realise that an instance of wrongdoing cannot be used to put brakes on the system itself. They do not realise that wrongdoing will always be witnessed, and that the striving of a system is to continuously refine itself to eliminate the possibilities of wrongdoings. That is how intelligence works. That is how humans and the world exist.

The cancellation of the election in Radhakrishnan Nagar, which was scheduled for April 12, 2017, is an admission of the Election Commission of India that it is an organisation totally disconnected from the democratic processes, and one that is entirely functioning according to a diseased process, stemming from the Prime Minister, and the Brahmin Organisation based in Nagpur, the RSS.

Democracy in India has slipped into the hands of a criminal lot.

Dr Radhakrishnan Nagar(RK Nagar)-Know the constituency trend in past elections

There were 2,39,000 electors in the constituency in 2006 of whom 1,68,000 voted, which was a turnout of 70 percent. Sekar Babu of ADMK won with 84,000 votes followed by R Manohar of INC with 66,000 votes.

In 2011, there were 1,91,000 electors of which 1,42,000 voted, which was a turnout of 74 percent. P Vetrivel of the ADMK got 84,000 votes while Sekar Babu of the DMK(the same Sekar Babu of 2006) lost with 53,000 votes.

In June 2015, Vetrivel resigned to allow Jayalalitha to contest, after she had been acquitted in the Karnataka High Court. Previously, Jayalalitha had been disqualified as MLA of Srirangam due to conviction in the trial court. In the bye-election, out of 2,43,000 electors, 1,81,000 voted for a turnout of 74 percent. Jayalalithaa obtained 1,60,000 votes with Mahendran of CPI getting 10,000 votes. Independent candidate Traffic Ramaswamy got 4600 votes.

In 2016, there were 2,55,000 electors of which 1,74,000 voted, which was a turnout of 68 percent. J Jayalalithaa got 97,000 votes while Simla Muthuchozhan of DMK got 58,000 votes.

Does the 2016 Tamilnadu elections have any precedent?

ADMK of 2011 minus two communist parties minus DMDK. ie 54 percent minus at least 15 percent = 39 percent.

DMK of 2006 minus two communist parties minus PMK. i.e 46 percent minus at least 15 percent  = 31 percent

This is what the C-Voter projected percentages are.

Another crucial aspect is that the 2011 ADMK votes must have included the MDMK which was not contesting. it was the MDMK votes that helped the ADMK in both 2006 and 2011.

The MDMK and the TMC are in trial now. If they do well, the third front will do quite well.

An indicator can be had with the 2001 elections and the 1996 elections.

In 2001, the MDMK got 5 percent of the votes while in 1996 it got 7.6 percent of the votes.

If the MDMK has 7 percent votes in each constituency, the two communists have 7 percent votes in each constituency, the VCK, TMC and DMDK all have 7 percent votes in each constituency, that makes a total of 35 percent which can be adjusted to 30 percent.

These are committed voters.

If the real strength of the DMK and the ADMK is 25 percent each, then these elections are going to throw up stunning results.

30 % for third front

25 % for DMK

25 % for ADMK

The remaining 20 percent of the votes will decide the victory if they go in one wave to either of the three.

The best comparison seems to be either the 2001 or the 1996 elections.

In 1996, there were four fronts while the wave went in favour of the DMK.

In 2001, there were three fronts.

Can the third front win big in 2016

In 2011, ADMK got 54 percent of the votes on average in the 165 seats it contested. its allies CPIM got 50.46 of the votes on average in the 12 seats that it contested, CPI got 48.79 of the votes on average in the 10 seats that it contested, DMDK got 44.95 percent of the votes on average in the 41 seats that it contested. While CPIM won 10 out of 12, CPI won 9 out of 10 and DMDK won 29 out of 41. ADMK won 150 out of the 165 it contested. Thus the ADMK allies got four to ten percent lesser votes per constituency than the ADMK.

In 2006, ADMK got 40.81 percent of the votes on average in the 188 seats it contested. Its ally MDMK got 37.7 percent of the votes on average in the 35 seats it contested and the VCK got 36.1 percent of the votes on average in the 9 seats it contested. Thus the ADMK allies got about three to four percentage lesser votes. It can be said that these votes transferred to the opposite alliance. The MDMK won 6 and the VCK won 2 while the ADMK won 61.

What explains the 10 percent difference between the ADMK and the DMDK vote shares in 2011?

The Indian National Congress won 43.5 percent of the votes on average in the 48 constituencies that it contested in 2006. The CPIM got 42.65 percent of the votes on average in the 13 seats that it contested in 2006. The CPI got 40.35 percent of the votes in the 10 seats that it contested. The PMK won 43.43 percent of the votes on average in the 31 seats that it contested. The INC won 34, the CPIM won 9 and the CPI won 6. The DMK won 45.99 percent of the votes in the 132 seats that it contested, winning 96.

In 2011, the Indian National Congress got 35.7 percent of the votes in the 63 constituencies it contested. The PMK won 39.72 of the votes on average in the 30 seats that it contested.The VCK won 34.10 percent of the votes on average in the ten seats that it contested. the Congress won 5, the PMK won 3 and the VCK won 0. The DMK won 42.20 percent of the votes on average in the 124 seats that it contested, winning 23.

T Nagar to get a new MLA after 10 years

VP Kalairajan of the ADMK was MLA from 2006 to 2016, but did not get to become a minister.

In 2006, then 44 years old, he got 74,131 votes versus J Anbazhagan of the DMK who got 57,654 voters. The DMDK candidate Pandian.T got 8824 votes. The Lok Paritran candidate Arvind. S got 6323 votes while Mukta V Srinivasan of the BJP got 4235 votes.

In 2011, Kalairajan got 75,883 votes versus the INC candidate Chellakumar A who got 43421 votes.

In assembly elections 2016, the ADMK candidate is B.Sathyanarayanan while the DMK candidate is gynaecologist Dr N.S Kanimozhi.

Anna Nagar candidates for 2016 assembly elections

Anna Nagar had 299 polling stations with 1180 electors on average per polling station in 2006. In 2011, this was 216 and 1050 respectively.

In 2006, Arcot Veerasamy of the DMK got 1,00,99 votes while Vijaya Thyanban of the MDMK got 87,709 votes. Rajamany.K of the Lok Paritran party got 11,665 votes. HV Hande of the BJP got 7897 votes. Senthamarai Kannan K of the DMDK came fifth with 6594 votes.

In 2011, Gokula Indira S of the ADMK got 88,954 votes compared with the INC's Arivazhagan VK who got 52,364 votes.

In the 2016 assembly election, Gokula Indira is contesting again while MK Mohan, a director in Empee Distilleries is the DMK candidate. Mallika Dayalan of the MDMK is contesting.

Gokula Indira has been a Rajya Sabha MP previously.

Is there going to be an interesting result in Assembly Elections 2016 for RK Nagar, the constituency that has seen quite a lot of drama

Doctor Radhakrishnan Nagar Assembly election constituency had 2,39,326 electors in 2006 and 1,95,179 electors in 2011.

The number of voters was 1,67,730 in 2006 and 1,41,942 voters in 2011.

The 2006 winner was P.K Sekar Babu of the ADMK with 84,462 votes while the second place went to Manohar.R of the INC with 66,399 votes. The DMDK candidate, 33-year old Mohamed Jan.P got 11,716 votes.

With 72.72 percent turnout in 2011, the winner was Vetrivel.P of the ADMK while the second place went to Sekar Babu.P.K, now with the DMK, with 52,522 votes.

The AIADMK candidate in Assembly Elections 2016 is Jayalalithaa while the DMK candidate is Simla Muthuchozhan. The VCK candidate is Vasanthi Devi.