Does the 2016 Tamilnadu elections have any precedent?

ADMK of 2011 minus two communist parties minus DMDK. ie 54 percent minus at least 15 percent = 39 percent.

DMK of 2006 minus two communist parties minus PMK. i.e 46 percent minus at least 15 percent  = 31 percent

This is what the C-Voter projected percentages are.

Another crucial aspect is that the 2011 ADMK votes must have included the MDMK which was not contesting. it was the MDMK votes that helped the ADMK in both 2006 and 2011.

The MDMK and the TMC are in trial now. If they do well, the third front will do quite well.

An indicator can be had with the 2001 elections and the 1996 elections.

In 2001, the MDMK got 5 percent of the votes while in 1996 it got 7.6 percent of the votes.

If the MDMK has 7 percent votes in each constituency, the two communists have 7 percent votes in each constituency, the VCK, TMC and DMDK all have 7 percent votes in each constituency, that makes a total of 35 percent which can be adjusted to 30 percent.

These are committed voters.

If the real strength of the DMK and the ADMK is 25 percent each, then these elections are going to throw up stunning results.

30 % for third front

25 % for DMK

25 % for ADMK

The remaining 20 percent of the votes will decide the victory if they go in one wave to either of the three.

The best comparison seems to be either the 2001 or the 1996 elections.

In 1996, there were four fronts while the wave went in favour of the DMK.

In 2001, there were three fronts.

Can the third front win big in 2016

In 2011, ADMK got 54 percent of the votes on average in the 165 seats it contested. its allies CPIM got 50.46 of the votes on average in the 12 seats that it contested, CPI got 48.79 of the votes on average in the 10 seats that it contested, DMDK got 44.95 percent of the votes on average in the 41 seats that it contested. While CPIM won 10 out of 12, CPI won 9 out of 10 and DMDK won 29 out of 41. ADMK won 150 out of the 165 it contested. Thus the ADMK allies got four to ten percent lesser votes per constituency than the ADMK.

In 2006, ADMK got 40.81 percent of the votes on average in the 188 seats it contested. Its ally MDMK got 37.7 percent of the votes on average in the 35 seats it contested and the VCK got 36.1 percent of the votes on average in the 9 seats it contested. Thus the ADMK allies got about three to four percentage lesser votes. It can be said that these votes transferred to the opposite alliance. The MDMK won 6 and the VCK won 2 while the ADMK won 61.

What explains the 10 percent difference between the ADMK and the DMDK vote shares in 2011?

The Indian National Congress won 43.5 percent of the votes on average in the 48 constituencies that it contested in 2006. The CPIM got 42.65 percent of the votes on average in the 13 seats that it contested in 2006. The CPI got 40.35 percent of the votes in the 10 seats that it contested. The PMK won 43.43 percent of the votes on average in the 31 seats that it contested. The INC won 34, the CPIM won 9 and the CPI won 6. The DMK won 45.99 percent of the votes in the 132 seats that it contested, winning 96.

In 2011, the Indian National Congress got 35.7 percent of the votes in the 63 constituencies it contested. The PMK won 39.72 of the votes on average in the 30 seats that it contested.The VCK won 34.10 percent of the votes on average in the ten seats that it contested. the Congress won 5, the PMK won 3 and the VCK won 0. The DMK won 42.20 percent of the votes on average in the 124 seats that it contested, winning 23.