ADMK of 2011 minus two communist parties minus DMDK. ie 54 percent minus at least 15 percent = 39 percent.
DMK of 2006 minus two communist parties minus PMK. i.e 46 percent minus at least 15 percent = 31 percent
This is what the C-Voter projected percentages are.
Another crucial aspect is that the 2011 ADMK votes must have included the MDMK which was not contesting. it was the MDMK votes that helped the ADMK in both 2006 and 2011.
The MDMK and the TMC are in trial now. If they do well, the third front will do quite well.
An indicator can be had with the 2001 elections and the 1996 elections.
In 2001, the MDMK got 5 percent of the votes while in 1996 it got 7.6 percent of the votes.
If the MDMK has 7 percent votes in each constituency, the two communists have 7 percent votes in each constituency, the VCK, TMC and DMDK all have 7 percent votes in each constituency, that makes a total of 35 percent which can be adjusted to 30 percent.
These are committed voters.
If the real strength of the DMK and the ADMK is 25 percent each, then these elections are going to throw up stunning results.
30 % for third front
25 % for DMK
25 % for ADMK
The remaining 20 percent of the votes will decide the victory if they go in one wave to either of the three.
The best comparison seems to be either the 2001 or the 1996 elections.
In 1996, there were four fronts while the wave went in favour of the DMK.
In 2001, there were three fronts.